Mineola school trustees got a look at the demographic study Monday that the district commissioned that shows a growth projection to 2,008 students in the next 10 years. Enrollment stands at 1,636.

Population and Survey Analysts (PASA) of College Station examined several factors in making the projections.

Housing projections are a key factor in the projection, with the Mineola school district expected to add 872 single family homes and 205 multi-family units in the coming decade.

The report cautioned, “The pace of growth of MISD enrollment will be highly dependent on continued low mortgage rates, the proportion of new residents with families or of an age to start families, and the number and age of the students in these households.”

Director of Planning Kris Pool said PASA gets its hands dirty when it studies a district to determine its growth potential through new development. Housing starts are then aligned with average students per household to come to projected enrollment figures.

Those figures were presented at three levels, with the 2,008 figures being the moderate growth rate. Slow growth would give the district 1,724 students while fast growth would result in 2,215.

Pool said that while the five-year projections are more accurate, the 10-year window is used because of the time it takes to develop and implement facility plans.

PASA then compared the projections with the capacity of district campuses.

One, the primary school, would exceed capacity by 2027. By the end of the 10-year period the elementary would be at 93% capacity, with the other two campuses below that.